OpenAI's Revenue Reportedly Falls $20 Billion Short of Prior Forecasts

Meta description: OpenAI told investors its annualized revenue is approaching $50 billion, about $20 billion below an earlier $70 billion comparison with Anthropic's run rate.

Tags: OpenAI revenue, annualized revenue, AI funding, IPO timing, Anthropic comparison

Featured image: A dark abstract network of glowing data nodes and revenue-style curves, rendered in blue and gold tones, with no people, logos, or text.

OpenAI has reset expectations around its annualized revenue after telling investors the figure is approaching $50 billion, a revision that places the real revenue some $20 billion lower than an earlier comparison that would have made it competitive with Anthropic's reported run rate. The change matters because it affects how the AI company's growth story is judged against its enormous fundraising, spending pressure, and a delayed initial public offering.

Background: A Comparison That Framed the $70 Billion Figure

A little over a week ago, reports described OpenAI's annualized revenue as approaching $70 billion, a level that would have made it competitive with Anthropic's reported run rate. The Financial Times reported that the $70 billion figure had been built from information OpenAI had previously shared with investors, and that it emerged from "attempts by OpenAI's own investors to produce a direct comparison with Anthropic's annualised revenues," per the FT.

This context is important because annualized revenue is not a simple GAAP total. It is a run-rate style estimate that scales recent commercial performance to a full-year pace. In AI labs, comparisons can become especially sensitive when different companies count sales differently.

Development: From $70 Billion to $50 Billion

The FT said OpenAI has now told investors that its annualized revenue is "approaching $50 billion." That places the company roughly $20 billion below the earlier $70 billion comparison, even though the original number had been shaped by investors seeking a direct benchmark against Anthropic.

The article also highlights a methodological difference between the two companies. Anthropic counts sales made by its cloud partners, while OpenAI does not. That distinction can make headline revenue comparisons misleading unless the accounting basis is explained. TechCrunch reached out to OpenAI for comment.

For readers, the practical effect is that OpenAI's revenue story is now less a head-to-head catch-up claim against Anthropic and more a disclosure of the company's own pace. That distinction can influence how fundraising is evaluated, because investors comparing AI labs must first understand whether partner sales are included and whether the metric reflects directly reported revenue or a broader comparison of partner-channel sales. It also narrows the gap that the earlier $70 billion comparison had implied, without changing the underlying capital demands already reflected in OpenAI's March raise.

Latest Progress: Fundraising, Spending, and IPO Timing

OpenAI's revenue reporting has been closely tied to its need to justify major investments made on its behalf. The company raised $122 billion during a March funding round alone, a sum that puts enormous pressure on any public revenue narrative. Earlier this year, leaked 2025 financials showed OpenAI had made about $13 billion but spent significantly more, a gap that has kept scrutiny of its economics in the foreground.

The company's IPO path has also shifted. OpenAI's public listing, previously rumored to materialize this year, has been pushed off until early 2027. The revised $50 billion annualized revenue estimate now becomes a central reference point for investors weighing whether the company can grow toward a large-scale public-market debut.

OpenAI is currently in a phase where its story is no longer anchored to a $70 billion comparison with Anthropic. Instead, the company is operating around a lower, more directly communicated annualized revenue figure, while still carrying the financial weight of a $122 billion funding round, a reported $13 billion 2025 revenue base, and an IPO timeline moved to early 2027.