AI was expected to hit recent graduates the hardest — but unemployment figures haven't backed that up yet.

A fresh working paper from economics researchers at Munich's CESifo directly challenges the widely shared Stanford finding that entry-level hiring in AI-exposed occupations has stalled. According to researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu, "there is no evidence of any significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring of recent college graduates in absolute or relative levels."

Why entry-level jobs were seen as vulnerable

The paper, titled "The Early Impacts of AI on Employment Among Recent College Graduates," focuses on new graduates because, as the authors explain, shifts in labor demand tend to show up first in hiring freezes rather than layoffs. The logic is straightforward: if AI can handle the relatively standardized tasks common in entry-level office roles, companies can simply hire fewer juniors while keeping experienced staff.

Why 2026 graduates may face higher risk

The researchers do not dismiss the risk outright. They point to warning signs that suggest this year's job market could be different from the last one or two. A recent Census survey recorded a sharp rise in firms "replacing a large number of employee tasks with AI," while AI spending per employee and ChatGPT Enterprise token use have both climbed broadly over the past 12 months.

High-profile voices echo that timing. Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen said earlier this year that "AI literally until December [2025] was not actually good enough to do any of the jobs that they're actually cutting." In March, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink warned that the pace of AI change could produce "the highest unemployment rate among [this year's college graduates] in years—even without a recession."

How the study tested the claims

Fairlie and Wu drew on detailed microdata from the US Census' Current Population Survey, tracking unemployment among Bachelor's degree recipients aged 22 to 25 who are not pursuing further study. Because unemployment predictably spikes when fresh graduates enter the market each summer, they compared year-over-year and seasonal patterns going back to 2022 — the year employment returned to pre-pandemic levels and the year ChatGPT launched.

Where this leaves the debate

For now, the CESifo paper stands in direct conflict with last month's Stanford study on AI-impacted occupations. The disagreement matters for the class of 2026: if AI-driven hiring pullbacks are real, they should surface in these graduate unemployment figures within the next few reporting cycles. Watch how the 2026 summer entry numbers compare year-over-year — that will be the clearest test of which study has it right.